This info is made on assumptions so don’t take it as right.


This info is made on assumptions so don’t take it as right.

The market.

The market has been down for about 19% this year. There have been some volatile periods where some stocks have been beaten up harder than expected due to inflation, covid lockdown in China, revenues not achieved, the war between Russia and Ukraine etc.

The past two years the market has risen a good amount after the drop that was caused because of COVID. People started to save more money and getting more money with the simulants checks that were given in America and in other countries in the world.

The world didn’t notice a lot of supply and demand problems with the lockdowns even when the evergreen got stuck the world wasn’t having big problems with it (not saying they weren’t there). There are some supplies in short like chips, lithium, oil, tarweed etc now but it isn’t at the level that we should worry (hoping it won’t created a chain reaction).

With inflation high and still increasing and the fed trying to lower it there are forecasts that a recession is coming, and for a part why the market has already reacted on it.

During the lockdowns people saved a lot of money and some people (company’s) have lost money due to it. The government has helped the people (company’s) by printing a lot of money and giving them these stimulus checks.

If the people used and saved the money correctly, we should be able to thrive to the inflation’s heights increasing the demand. If this is false, there won’t be a lot of demand and due to that the supply chains won’t be in trouble.

Seen at the revenue of target and Walmart the impact of inflation was higher than expected. Logical if the gasoline prices are averaged about 4.5 dollar per gallon.

Not every person is buying their extra’s. But in the food chains there doesn’t seem to be a problem. Target and Walmart are known for selling more than just food.

So supply and demand probably won’t be a big factor in the first coming quarters. It will be a problem if more then a few important products are getting scarce. If inflation keeps on rising and the fed will keep buying interest rates to imply a soft landing, hopingly the market won’t react heavenly. If the supply and demand and inflation is in control, the only thing that could start a recession is the war between Russia and Ukraine and the durance of the lockdown in China (assuming COVID won’t create another world wilde lockdown).

Hopingly the Lockdown in China won’t take more then a few months as which the economy will have a boost which will boost the economy’s around the world. The same is with the war between Russia and Ukraine. If the war is over (let it be as soon as possible), America, Europa, Asia probably will have cut their ties with Russia to a humanly amount and there is space for growth. This growth will also be economically. In this timeframe of guessed 10- 15 months where we first will have have a slower growth (seen from the S&P 500 at 3850 points) whereas eventually a faster growth (S&P 500 at 5350 points) it probably will still needs to cleanse (market at the moment being at 3860 points). The recession. Probably short termed, if not some other world problems have come in to play. Or during this periode of 10–15 months if not created a huge differentials in bull runs the market grows steadily so a recession is not needed. It is possible but in the situation we are living now a constant line is scarce haha.