Probability of a UK Recession increased to 45% According to Bookmakers Odds

  • Bookmakers have slashed the odds of a Recession taking place in 2022
  • The probability of a recession this year has increased from just 25% in January to around 45% today
  • The last UK recession was early 2020, before that it was 2009

Inflation and interest rates are on the tip of the tongue of everyone in the UK right now, and there is another word that is beginning to be bandied about, not least by bookmakers who have increased the probability of a Recession from 20% at the start of the year to 45% in recent days as bets come in on the possibility before the end of 2022.

Betting on the possibility has been available at bookmakers since early last year and just in October 2021, odds were massively in favour of no recession.

However, as 2022 has progressed and inflation and interest rates rose, the 83% chance of no recession has receded, and as a result, the odds of a recession tumbled at the start of the year

Betting Odds of a 2022 Recession in the UK

Betting Odds of a 2022 Recession in the UK (OLBG.COM)

How is a Recession Determined?

A recession is considered a drop in GDP for two consecutive three-month periods, (Quarters) in a row.

The last time this happened in the UK was early in 2020, the first time it had happened since 2009.

A recession is generally bad news for everyone as there are fewer jobs, fewer profits, interest rates drop and inflation can rise.

Do not consider betting on a recession happening as a way of offsetting the situation however, Gambling is never a good practice or protection against a recession, and especially bad if betting more than you can afford to lose.

Prior to early 2020 there had not been an official recession since 2009. Betting odds suggest 2022 has a 45% chance of it happening and that probability is rising all the time according to bookmakers

Nigel Skinner — Political Betting Expert —

2022 has already had an amount of political activity hitting headlines, not least discussion over the respective leaders of the two major political parties, the elections in May and what is happening with Scottish referendum betting and further afield in the US. Betting sites have many different betting angles and markets available and OLBG News will keep you abreast of all the major betting odds movements as they happen

Originally published at