Cantering Clark 5/19 Stream Summary

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Intro:

*Nothing is financial advice

Phemex exchange shout out. Non-KYC exchange and non adversarial

After streams CC will go live on Callin to answer any questions live you might have

Important Terms to know:

HTF- High time frames. Think days, weeks, months

LTF- Low time frames. Think hours and minutes

VIX- Volatility index. Measures the markets expectation of volatility currently.

CPI- Consumer product index. Measures inflation of goods

FOMC- Monthly meeting of Federal Reserve officials that decides monetary policy (rates, printing etc.). Generally expect markets to be volatile around FOMC

OI- Open Interest. Refers to total number of outstanding contracts in derivatives yet to be settled. In crypto terms, think market participants opening positions as OI rises, or closing positions as OI falls.

Backwardation- When dated futures price moves below current spot price on BTC. Example could be December quarterlies trading at 29k while the market as of right now is pricing spot BTC at 31.5k.

Delta- shows which side of the book is more aggressive (taking). Negative Delta would mean sellers are selling/shorting at market more aggressively than buyers are on the other side.

SFP- Swing Failure Pattern. Technical pattern in price action that shows a move above/below a previous defined level that fails to follow through the level, often times setting up a trap of breakout buyers or breakdown sellers as price moves against their entry at the extremes back into the previous range.

Macro

  • Not much new. Can refer to past summaries for a rundown but the environment is still the same
  • BTC still correlated despite brief de-correlation yesterday. Still don’t think we start moving higher on longer time frames if equities are moving down at the same time
ES showing yesterdays meltdown into a probable bounce zone
  • More likely that BTC strength was frontrunning the ES bounce that was probably going to take place at the lows.
  • Decoupling will probably be brief in these environments
  • Have a holistic view of markets, but don’t overanalyze every single asset class to try and form a thesis on crypto. Can get messy and get you chopped up.
  • Losing significant ES levels WILL affect BTC though. Trade levels
10Y Yields FINALLY showing signs of letting up
  • Bianco note on Yields v bonds: In looking for a bottom in the near future across macro markets you want either a narrative shift or telling signs of a change in the market. The past few days we have finally seen yields start to drop on both the 2Y and 10Y bonds Shows actual fear coming in to the market and could mean we are close to a larger rally.

Chart Analysis:

Current range we are in. Don’t get chopped up
  • Have had value developing between 31.5 and 28.5
  • Was looking for a long at the lows around 28.5
  • Expecting continuation downward without any traps wasn’t smart. This structure can trap people for a couple weeks on either side before choosing a direction.
TPO showing recent move down and then back into range
  • Was looking to play a re-acceptance back into the range into a move to the highs of the current range
  • Once you re-accept back into a range, it’s more likely that price will continue previous behavior of rotating between lows and highs.
The main setup useful in playing these traps. Study it. Memorize it. Execute it.
  • Lots of absorption into the lows from yesterday.
  • Two forced runs toward the lows that result in lower prices until finally sellers are caught below in the wicks, the shift is obvious when we retrade higher prices and price is remaining bid even with continued selling.
  • OI going up while pricing holding then reclaiming higher: squeeze fuel
  • Have to assume that anyone that shorted that downmove is going to be covering if price starts moving against them. Covering= more buyers which turns into a feedback loop as prices go higher and more and more shorters are forced to cover.
Pullbacks being supported against the waves of sellers
  • Every pullback was met with aggressive selling but also absorption
  • Showing that there are willing buyers chasing price up as we move
One potential area to eye buying a dip is around the VWAP and VAL if price pulls back
A more confident long would be this reacceptance above range high
  • Current area as of stream is right at 30k. Not a great spot to define a long. Better areas both lower 29.4k region or acceptance above range high around 30.7k
  • A move above would be much more confidence inspiring to buy instead of a move back down to lower 29k though
  • SFP: Strong move up on volume, then second move up above the high on lower volume with trapped buyers at the high
  • Best SFP’s happen when a ton of positioning is caught offsides
ETH lagging a bit to BTC
  • Mostly just weak to Bitcoin. Reactions not quite as strong and BTC.D is rising everywhere
  • Same setup as BTC yesterday might be forming, but right now you’re getting more volume into the lows than BTC was
Monthy close coming up: It’s a big one
  • As far as HTF goes, if the monthly closes above 35k that would be significantly bullish and suggestive of a move higher to 48k. Not likely right now though.