Bitcoin Weekly Report- Extreme fear causes chaos in market.

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  1. Bitcoin Report (16th of May 2022)
  2. The only Altcoin anyone's talking about
  3. LUNA/USD

Crypto markets suffer as Luna falls 100%

Bitcoin Report (16th of May 2022)

For some the past week has been extremely tough. I wanted to start this report by saying I hope everyone out there reading this is okay. In the years I have been trading crypto I have never seen what I saw this week and it goes to show, you have to be prepared for anything at all times. If you need help and support please feel free to reach out and ask for help and advice.

Please remember this quote and remember what is truly important in life.

A good man can be completely wiped out and make another fortune. He can do that several times. Even if our home burns down, we can rebuild it. But the things we got for nothing, we can never replace. — Earl Nightingale

In this report we will cover BTC and Luna. To keep the report short we will skip other major altcoins this week.

BTC Daily

BTC/USD Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7J5ENgQp/

Last week we predicted that the price of bitcoin needed to hold the $30,000 area. I’m happy to say that even though price fell to the $28,000 level that the close about to happen on the daily above the zone for me is actually quite a positive sign.

What I might expect to see is a move up to the $36,000 level where it might reject and fall back to the $32,000 to retest and continue up. These scenarios will be covered in the 4hr section.

If BTC fails to hold the zone at $30,000 I would be fearful that the market might continue further down. The areas I would be looking for support are $25,000 ,$19,700 , $12,572 , $6093. Remember these are not exact price points where we blindly buy, but are areas we wait to see reactions at and make good trading decisions with likely outcomes.

4 Hour Timeframe

4hr Current Situation

https://www.tradingview.com/x/8GOhpUCa/

The market structure is starting to shift with the reclaim of the $29,500 level and price starting to form higher lows on the 4hr TF. I want to make it very clear that this could easily just roll over within days or even hours. So the moment that $29,500 falls again I would be looking to secure profits or remove risk.

As I stated in the daily section the reclaim of the $29,500 level is really positive for the short term. We held support and through all the volatility that came with doubt in the market and question marks surrounding Crypto in general, Bitcoin still managed to hold this key area.

Options for next movements

https://www.tradingview.com/x/i5EIpcYg/

As shown above there are multiple scenarios that we expect to potentially play out. Its as simple as being patient and watching what happens. If you aren’t currently long then wait for a reclaim of what I would call the inverse head and shoulders neckline. Below is what an inverse head and shoulder pattern could look like.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/w99CDTMG/

The inverse head and shoulder is a really simple but effective pattern to look out for at bottoms of trends. It contains a left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. The neckline is a key point in the pattern as if it is broken or claimed it can add extra confirmation that the trend may be reversing. In simplest terms, inverse head and shoulders occur when price structure begins to shift from constant lower lows and lower highs to higher lows and higher highs.

The break down is as follows — lower low (left shoulder) — Lower high (Neckline point 1) — Lower low (Head) — Equal high or lower high (Neckline point 2) — to then Higher low (Right shoulder) — Higher high (break of neckline) — Higher low (retest of neckline).

The only Altcoin anyone's talking about

LUNA/USD

https://www.tradingview.com/x/83xSmsGb/

I am not here to talk about why something happened or the fundamental theories , stories or news of Luna. I am simply here to say you don’t buy something that looks like this just because its dropped 30%, 40%, 80% , 90 % or practically 100%

My number 1 rule that has saved me multiple times in this market is “Don’t catch the falling knife!!” I am sorry but in what universe is it okay to try and buy a chart that looks like that?

Over the past few reports I hope you have understood why I look for a break and retest of structure. When you get a break and retest of structure there is one thing that can be agreed on. “Something has changed”. If we are forming lower lows and lower highs why not wait till we get that first higher high or higher low?

Sure this does not work every time , nothing does in financial markets, but it saves you buying at $55 , $30 , $10 , or what? $0.0002. Social media has made me a little bit sick this week, the advice going around suggesting buying Luna at $10 because if it reaches previous highs you'll have 1100% return is just wishful thinking at its best.

I am sorry if you got caught up in this but learn from it. Wait for market structure to change and if it does, you can at least know why you are entering rather than blindly entering because of a gamble. To survive in the market you must preserve your capital at all costs. It is about risk management and never assuming that the market can or cant do something. Read what is on the chart and make a objective decision based on that, not rumours on Facebook or Twitter. I will of course be keeping a close eye on Luna, but the odds are that it is dead and I will gladly be wrong about that, but the above chart tells me one thing.. it is dead.

I wanted to finish the report by reminding you that if the Luna crash has significantly impacted you that the most important thing is that you are okay! Learn from it and rebuild yourself, nothing can stop a man or woman wanting to achieve what he or she truly wants to achieve, if he/she just believe in themselves . Sometimes walking away and resetting and coming up with a new plan of attack is the best thing to do. My goals are always to just remove one mistake from my trading every month, if I do that in a couple years from now I should be in a much better place than I am now. Mistakes mean you are challenging yourself and that is a good thing! So make mistakes , learn from them and grow into a better person.

If you need anything please feel free to reach out!

That is this weeks Bitcoin report. Thanks for reading

Trade your trading plan and manage risk.

If you want to get in touch with me follow me on

Twitter: @NickWoodFX

Email: [email protected]

Nick

This is not financial advice. The information contained on this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. You and only you are responsible for your trading and investing decisions. I am not a professional. I accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage you may incur.

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